(Written in the Fall of '90)
Albert Einstein noted on the occasion of the birth of the Nuclear Age that "Everything about international relations has changed, except the way men think about them". Our first major challenge to world stability without the two greatest nuclear powers opposed demonstrates that in 45 years we still haven't progressed much in our methods. The megalomaniac dictator of Iraq, "Saddam"'s invasion of Kuwait and threat to the entire Levant is a test not of the industrialized world's ability to sink to his level by invading a la WWII strategies (insuring chemical warheads dropped on six neighboring countries & an army of vengeful terrorists throughout the West for years to come), so much as it must presage a pattern of global cooperation able to affect a situation through force of moral suasion, utilizing intellectual battle (DEBATE) on the field of International Public Opinion. In the case at hand emphasizing the participation and winning over of the MAJORITY of the Islamic peoples (not just the governmental heads).
The problem with old-style war is that today we live in an international economic "state". The "we" being the industrialized nations whose energy source is still petrol, who value our individual lives so highly (we can afford to) and who's West Europe (expanding east) Anglo American Japan triumvirate market place necessitates the sort of free-flow of persons/goods across borders that precludes the kind of "Garrison State" protections Israel, for example, employs to deal with the Islamic world with impunity (which would prove prohibitively expensive, past our point of "diminishing returns"). A deterioration of the crisis to actual invasion of Kuwait (& especially Iraq) no matter how efficient and effective in the short run would certainly guarantee the enmity of many thousands of surviving/grieving fathers, brothers, sons of victims and, would reverse the restraint which has been practiced by Palestinian supporters of late such as Arafat's PLO moderates (in relative terms).
The methodology employable towards a survivable long-term resolution requires a two pronged or "double - edged" approach, since Saddam's power derives from two sources. He possesses the military might the world sold to him, as well as the perceived moral authority amongst the masses ceded through Israeli obstruction of, and U.S. indifference to, the plight of native palestinians.
The current emphasis on merely the first half of this empowerment threatens to turn the majority of Islam against the world community and give Martyr status to an inhuman fool. This does not require capitulation on Israeli rights, but merely an honest, competent process giving hope to the indigenous population that return of the occupied properties is possible (perhaps East of the mountain ridge on the West Bank to provide Israel a Defensible border, & Gaza) in exchange for co-existence (in SALAAM/SHALOM). <I more recently could not support cavalier giveaways of land, as I thought when this was written might be all that's possible, and acceptable by the aggrieved party.>
The first edge of the sword might be termed "Enlightenment Brinkmanship". The fact of the matter is, Saddam, like all absolute dictators is his own most tragic victim. Bush drew parallels to Shicklegruber (Hitler's real name) which he resembles, ironically most of all in the sense that the aristocracy in Germany thought they could empower, and then, control adolph to purge the jews and scare off the true socialists. The Republican administration, Israel and moderate Arab states thought to use Saddam similarly against Shi'ite extremism associated with Ruhollah Khomeini (without whom the G.O.P. would not have gained power in 1981, cf. Sirhan Sirhan's stupidity making nixon's regime possible). A closer look, however suggests we are dealing with some kind of STALIN II. His political roots lie in the socialist Baath party (like his less ego-mad rival Hafez Assad of Syria), which has degenerated into an oppression machine for the "flawless leader" (cf. Soviet Union between the slow assassination of Lenin {1921} and 1953). The most salient parallel to "Uncle Joe" is the megalomaniac tendency towards perceived apotheosis of a most singular nature. Stalin felt threatened by everyone who's intelligence approached (or worse surpassed) his own, and so decapitated his society (intellectually) through suppression, imprisonment and murder, thereby crippling it's development so thoroughly it is only now recovering. Saddam operates in a similar manner, killing anyone with the effrontery to even suggest the appearance of his retirement (or merely a vacation). This is not an atmosphere in which constructive criticism thrives (no rival political parties for eg.), yielding the (militarily) foolish moves of the season.
The fact is, despite Saddam's shiny, booming equipment greedily supplied by the arms merchants, he simply is a second-rate power in a NUCLEAR Age! He was not sold state of the art equipment, generally, especially in air delivery systems; he has no atomic capability and against the aggregate might of the Security Council members (E Pluribus Unum = Out of Many One {PURPOSE}) he's a relative pip squeak!
The art of brinkmanship lies not in the foolish use of force, but, rather in the credible threat posed by a relentless build-up of same. The enlightenment comes both through realization of devastation inflictable militarily AND most critically in a UNITED Nations process, the feeling of ISOLATION from The World community when the perception that all peoples are against you sinks in. This requires, of course that participation (at least token/symbolic) from the other major powers (read Soviet Union & China) must be enlisted as time/pressure/embargo goes on! [SIEGE weakens the Target given Time, a principal well known in the Levant.]
The second edge of the "sword" required in this case involves undercutting the support Saddam enjoys by default in opposing the perceived oppressors of the downtrodden Palestinians. Even with all the great powers on it's borders, the most important and effective public opinion lies in the middle east states themselves. Military might alone can gain a short term "victory" leading to many years of blood feud terrorism, whereas winning over the "hearts & minds" of the Islamic MAJORITY will bring to bear the pressure within IRAQ able to evolve Saddam towards Perestroika, Glasnost & Humane nation building (IF he learns fast enough) or, to force his retirement in Geneva (if possible, elsewhere if he's beyond any "Damascus conversion" to reality). A wise policy might seek to "deal with" the current power structure in such a manner, given commonly poor track record of removing one dictator after decades of entrenched authoritarianism only to see it succeeded by a new brand of the same old product (no matter how emotionally/ politically satisfying it might be to "get Saddam"). The objective is to evolve Mesopotamia towards peaceful coexistence, perhaps through emphasizing the path their erstwhile model to the North (the S.U.) has travelled (perhaps including a role for Gorbachev in time?).
Although this is not the time for dwelling on recriminations, for the sake of giving "credit" where it's due, one might recall the missed warnings inherent in Saddam's use of Poison Gas against the Persians (in contravention to treaties dating back to 1925) and Kurdistan after which the G.O.P. administration complained little and allowed more arms sales; as well as the Stark incident which killed 37 Americans with hardly a forced apology from their kind of "ally"!
The more detrimental string of incompetence is constituted by the Bonzo-Bush administration's record in "peace - making" over the decade, after the Carter success was cut short. Not all the blame can be laid directly at their door, but a troubling "excuse-ism" has replaced serious policy as exemplified by Baker's "call-me-when-you-want-peace" abdication of responsibility. Seeing as how the success of their comrades in the right-wing LIKUD camp rests significantly on the U.S. propping up Israeli fiscal irresponsibility to the tune of about $10,000,000 a day, they are responsible for lack of encouragement towards significant dialogue with the (presently) more responsible P.L.O.! One does not have to be a "fan" of Yassir Arafat's entire career to take the EVEN HANDED position that his organization is the best realistic hope for eventual co-existence partners with the Sons of Abraham (Jimmy Carter's excellent overview expounds this perspective more fully).
Any Judaeo-Christian observer notes with sadness that the country which let the slaughters in Sabra/Shateeya refugee camps go essentially unpunished and which breaks the most fundamental MOSAIC LAW limiting vengeance to no more than an eye for an eye, life for a life, during the INTIFADA's enforcement (eg. returning Death for a BRUISE)seems to have lost it's way. When the "Children of Israel" fail to practice JUST JUDGEMENT in relation to their neighbors, they should know, from the biblical histories, that less HYPOCRISY is tolerated under YHWH's banner than any other, and that they play a dangerous game when tempting the wrath of THE LORD ! Indeed, a religious case for impeachment could be made. 'Tis a sad day in the Holy Land when a humane Israeli might exclaim, "My People are become the Oppressor!"
Divine considerations aside (or in parallel perhaps), an honest public opening of discussions (perhaps with the less hypocritical, more fair-minded Shimon Peres) with legitimate representatives of similarly one-god worshipping neighbors towards the goal of exchanging "Land for Peace" (perhaps utilizing both U.S. and S.U. troops along DMZ lines) would do more to undercut Saddam's support than 10 worlds of armies and 10,000 Video's! [P.R. doesn't count much when people are DYING!]
A major mistake of the Likud camp seems to have been the systematic policy of expelling MODERATE Palestinian leaders from the occupied territories (including a non-violent Christian protestor) which signals that reasonable actions avail one nothing, thereby forcing Palestinians to embrace the Radical extreme {hence the strong support for Saddam (& such groups as HAMAS) from Jordan and the occupied territories}.
In closing, one who has read completely "the Lecture" (Exhortation)/KORAN as well as the TORAH, prophets, wisdom literature etc., finds much in common amongst these scriptures and hopes that the "cousins" soon tire of their feuding so as to put an end to the SHAME they heap up on their Holy men's efforts, and instead compete in Glorifying the ONE LORD both claim (by any name, Moses was told "I AM THAT I AM", the essenes list 49 variants, the moslems 99) through demonstrating their merciful-ness towards each other and comprehending their relationship through Truthful Understanding!!!
SHALOM:::SALAAM = SURVIVAL
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AL - HUJURAT surah (the inner apartments), verse 10,11
(w/presumptions for an EXTINCTable Age)
And if two parties of believers fight against each other,
MAKE PEACE between them;
then if after that
one of them transgresses against the other "fight"
(the hate/ignorance through non - violent battle)
the party that transgresses until it returns to the command of Allah.
Then, if it returns, make PEACE
between them with equity, and act justly.
Verily, Allah loves the JUST!
Surely all believers are brothers. So make PEACE between brothers,
and fear Allah that mercy may be shown to you.
PRAISE BE TO ALLAH, THE BENEFICENT, THE MERCIFUL!!
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The fear (or respect) of THE LORD is the beginning of UNDERSTANDING!!
From the Song of Moses : Deuteronomy 32
2: My doctrine shall drop...as the small rain upon the tender herb...
4: He is the Rock (Selah)...a God of Truth and without iniquity, JUST and correct is he.
35: To ME belongeth vengeance and recompense...
36: For THELORD shall judge...
39: See now that I, even I, am he, and there is no god with me....
43: Rejoice O ye nations, with his people; for he.....will be merciful....
PRAISE THE LORD, HOSANNA HALLELUJAH IN THE HIGHEST!
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and from the tradition of Y'Shua of Nazareth, "Prince of Peace"
Judge not - that ye may not be judged
Blessed are the Peace-makers, for they shall see GOD!